As we move into 2015, many UK-based NGOs are wondering how to meet
the challenges of a crucial year. What is the unique and distinct value
that each organisation, and the UK sector as a whole, brings to
international development, and how might this change in future?.......
To help the sector get on the front foot we have identified seven
“megatrends”.....
In my opinion, at least three more "megatrends" should be added: the shift towards a more and more conflictual world owing to inequality of access to natural resources and global income disparities,
therefore, greater likelihood of both civil and international wars, the expansionist tendency of the old and emerging mega-powers, linked to the above, and the expanding influence of religious or para-religious ideologies, already identified in 1990 by Gilles Keppel, who published a study entitled "God's revenge", La revanche de Dieu.
Encore, la géopolitique du chaos. Bon appetit.
1. Climate change and planetary boundaries
As evidence mounts that the impacts of human-caused climate change
are already upon us, the future of international development cannot be
considered in isolation from the need to adapt. Furthermore the Earth’s
natural systems are under enormous pressure, with huge consequences for
the world’s most vulnerable people. As UNep’s 2012 Global Environment
Outlook assessment concludes: “Scientific evidence shows that Earth
systems are being pushed towards their bio-physical limits, with
evidence that these limits are close and have in some cases been
exceeded”.
2. Demographic shifts
The global population could reach 9.6 billion by 2050 and 10.9
billion by 2100. In 2000, for the first time, there were more people
over the age of 60 in the world than children under five. By 2050,
four-fifths of older people will live in developing countries, where 80%
of them will have no regular income. Youth unemployment is also
growing. In 2012, 15- to 24-year-olds made up 40% of the total
unemployed population.
3. Urbanisation
Globally, more people live in urban than rural areas and this is
expected to gather pace. But the urban transition is taking place at
different rates in different parts of the world. By 2050 most northern
regions are expected to be at least 84% urban. In contrast, even by
2050, Africa’s urban dwellers are projected to make up just 62% of its
total, and Asia’s 65%. Even in Asia and Africa, though, rapid
rural-to-urban shifts are taking place.
Urbanisation is a key engine of economic growth, but with this comes the risks of social marginality, conflict and exploitation.
4. Natural resource scarcity
Demographic pressures create food and water insecurity, and supplies
of non-renewable natural resources including fossil fuels are depleting.
Scarcity could push prices up, creating further hardship for those most
in need. Notwithstanding the current low oil price, from 2000 to 2013
metal prices rose by 176%, energy prices by an average of 260% and food
prices by 120%. Depending on political responses, this may drive
humanitarian crises, population movements and a rise in protectionist or
nationalist policies.
5. Geopolitical shifts
In 2012, the Brics countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China and
South Africa
were reported as being responsible for more than 25% of the world’s GDP
based on purchasing power parity and home to 40% of the global
population. The axis of the world’s economic and geopolitical power has
shifted – and will continue to shift – from west and north to east and
south. Poverty patterns and distributions are changing alongside the
wider geopolitical shifts, and donor policies are changing alongside
them. Declining overseas development assistance to middle income
countries and new donors entering the landscape are reshaping the nature
of aid. Moreover, there is a risk that some growing political powers
restrict the space for civil society action.
6. Processes of technological transformation and innovation
Technological innovation could have a very significant impact on the
ability of people to meet their needs and to adapt to climate change.
The world is becoming hyper-connected. Technological changes and the
rapid diffusion of information and communications technologies,
particularly among young people, have also broken down many of the old
barriers between northern and southern publics. By 2030, it is estimated
that 50% of the global population will have internet access. There is
also growing appreciation of how technology links to human and
environmental systems, escalating conflict or cooperation.
7. Inequality
Economic growth in at least 40 countries has helped to
lift many hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. It is important
not to allow rising GDP per capita in middle-income countries mask
remaining underlying challenges – including rising inequality, weak
social protection, poor infrastructures (particularly in urban areas),
environmental degradation, and rising citizen expectations. Already,
according to an
Oxfam report,
85 billionaires have the same wealth as the bottom half of the world’s
population. In 2012, 71% of the world’s population was reported to live
in nations where income inequality is increasing. As well as stifling
economic growth, inequality has a significant negative impact upon
health and educational outcomes as well as security.
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